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Equity Valuation – Dividend Discount Models

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Question 1
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Suppose Ardmore Holdings announces it expects significant dividend growth over the next two years and plans to increase its recent USD2.00 dividend by 5% per year for the next two years. Following the high-growth period, dividends are expected to grow at a constant rate of 4% indefinitely. If Ardmore's required rate of return is 9%, what is the estimated current value of its stock?

Explanation

We are using a multi-stage dividend discount model:

  • D₀ = 2.00

  • Growth for 2 years: 5%

  • Long-term growth: 4%

  • Required return: 9%

Step 1: Forecast Dividends

  • D₁ = 2.00 × 1.05 = 2.10

  • D₂ = 2.10 × 1.05 = 2.205

  • D₃ = 2.205 × 1.04 = 2.2932

Step 2: Calculate Terminal Value at end of Year 2

Use the Gordon Growth Model for dividends from year 3 onward:

P _{2} = \frac{D_{3}}{r - g} = \frac{2.2932}{0.09 - 0.04} = 45.864

Step 3: Discount D₁, D₂, and P₂ to Present Value

Use BA II Plus:

  1. 2nd → CLR TVM

  2. Cash Flow Mode:

    • CF0 = 0

    • C01 = 2.10

    • C02 = 2.205 + 45.864 = 48.069

  3. NPV

    • I = 9

    • Compute NPV → ≈ 46.18

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